By Robert A. Vella
Newly released opinion polls all show the reelection hopes for President Trump and Senate Republicans are continuing to fade. Besides the national and state polling heavily favoring Joe Biden and Democrats, two numbers really stand out. 72% of Americans say the U.S. is on the wrong track, and 50% say there is no way they would consider voting for Trump. When ¾ of the electorate feel the President and his party are moving the country in the wrong direction and ½ want to kick them out of office, it sends a clear signal to political analysts about what is likely to happen in November.
The problem for the GOP isn’t that there is insufficient time left to turn around the mood of the people. No, their problem is that Trump is adamantly refusing to change course and Republicans are too afraid of his rabid supporters to force him to change. So, the political dynamic which has prevailed since early this year when the coronavirus pandemic struck appears to be locked-in place at least for the next few months. Could there be an “October surprise” or other dramatic event which could alter this electoral landscape? Sure, anything is possible. But, is it likely? No, it isn’t.
So, here is the new polling and today’s important headlines:
While there’s long been a massive disconnect between Trump’s public bluster and private worries, anger and anxiety, the demotion of Parscale is a shining example of that chasm. The truth that any politician knows is that you don’t get rid of your campaign manager unless things are not going well. And you especially don’t get rid of your campaign manager 111 days before the election — unless things are going REALLY badly.
Which, for Trump, they are. Remarkably so. A new Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday showed former Vice President Joe Biden with a massive 52% to 37% lead over the incumbent. An NBC-Wall Street Journal poll also released Wednesday showed Biden up 11 on Trump. Polling in swing states like Florida, Michigan and Wisconsin show Biden comfortably ahead — and there’s even polling in typically red states like Arizona, Texas and Georgia that suggest Biden is competitive with Trump in those places.
Things have grown so dire for Trump that non-partisan political handicappers are now predicting a Democratic takeover of the Senate due to Trump’s current disastrous polling numbers. Talk of Republicans retaking the House majority is nonexistent. Every sign is pointing to an apocalyptic election for Republicans — one that could set the party back at the state and national level for years, if not decades.
With Joe Biden claiming almost a double-digit lead in national polls, one question still seems to loom over the race: Can we trust the polls after 2016?
And while Mr. Biden can currently survive a 2016-like polling error, there is no reason a polling error couldn’t be even larger in 2020.
But for now, his lead is large enough to survive a 2016 repeat and just about every general-election polling error in recent memory. He leads by an average of nearly 10 percentage points in national polls since June 1, well ahead of Mrs. Clinton’s four-point lead in the final national polls or her peaks of about seven points in early August and mid-October.
Mr. Biden also enjoys a far wider lead in the battleground states likeliest to decide the presidency. His 13-point lead in a Monmouth University poll of Pennsylvania published on Wednesday, for instance, puts him in a much stronger position than Mrs. Clinton, who had a four-point lead in the last Monmouth poll of Pennsylvania taken just before the election.
Of course, the polls could be even further off this time than four years ago. But there are also many reasons to think they could be better this time around.