By Robert A. Vella
Previously on this blog, I published dire statistical projections about the number of potential deaths in the U.S. resulting from the coronavirus pandemic. These were purely mathematical calculations based on the percentage of the population which would become infected with COVID-19 and on conservative forecasts of the death rate. It was not, however, a conveyance of expert epidemiological analysis which considers many other factors including advancements in medical treatments and new discoveries on the functioning of this virus and how it evolves over time. Still, my projected statistical death toll of at least several hundred thousand fatalities when herd immunity is finally reached is representative of the potential human cost of the contagion. That the numbers are so frightening is probably why government officials, healthcare professionals, and the news media refrain from discussing it publicly. But, such hesitancy is starting to fade as the nation plunges deeper into a public health crisis greatly exacerbated by failed political leadership and narcissistic cultural attitudes.
So, the remainder of 2020 looks very bad for America. Coronavirus is once again spreading out of control and compelling even stubborn Republican governors to re-implement social and economic restrictions. Even more worrisome is that this resurgence of the pandemic is happening during the summer months when higher humidity and temperatures were expected to slow its growth. When seasonal flu conditions return in autumn, many are wondering how much more severe will COVID-19 get. Furthermore, the corruption-plagued financial aid bills passed by Congress and signed by the President are expiring, the U.S. economy is expected to turn back downwards, and state governments are rapidly running out of revenues. A year from Hell, it certainly is; and, we’re barely passed the halfway point.
For Donald Trump and his sycophantic Republican Party, their prospects for November look even worse. Trump’s utter disdain for the health and well-being of Americans on top of his racist support of Confederate heritage, traitorous alliance with foreign dictators (esp. Russia’s Vladimir Putin), and continual fascist affronts to constitutional and democratic norms (esp. the rule of law), have all combined to dramatically erode the GOP’s standing with voters to the point of an impending electoral disaster. If the expected rout does occur, it will be poetic justice and very well-deserved.
President Donald Trump is now an underdog to win a second term, and Republicans’ Senate majority is in serious danger of being swept out with him, according to the latest edition of POLITICO’s Election Forecast.
A series of crises over the past three months has seen the political environment deteriorate markedly for Trump and his party. The percentage of voters who think the country is headed in the wrong direction is hitting new highs — a record 75 percent in the latest POLITICO/Morning Consult poll — and Trump’s approval rating is settling near his all-time lows.
Meanwhile, Joe Biden’s lead over Trump is swelling to roughly 10 points nationally — and for the first time, our forecast classifies Biden as the clear favorite in the race.
The national atmosphere is toxic enough that Senate Republicans, who currently hold a three-seat majority, no longer have a significant edge in their quest to retain control of the chamber next year. Democrats have both built leads in states that were previously considered up-for-grabs and put new states firmly on the map, expanding their path to a majority and potential unified control of government in 2021.
POLITICO’s Election Forecast is a long-term, qualitative examination of the political landscape, from the presidential campaign down to the congressional-district level. It is based on continual interviews with strategists and operatives, polling and other data streams and the electoral and demographic trends driving the 2020 campaign. It is a more deliberative approach than a statistical model, which can be helpful in cutting through polls and other data sources but can also shift from day-to-day with little rationale for the changes.
From: As Trump gaslights America about coronavirus, Republicans face a critical choice [emphasis by The Secular Jurist]
The gulf between reality and President Donald Trump‘s delusional vision of a waning coronavirus threat was on full display this weekend, as cases soared in key hotspots while he delivered speeches at Mount Rushmore and at the White House, with little physical distancing and few masks, directly contradicting the advice from his public health experts.
Playing with fire at a time when experts say the spread of the virus appears to be spiraling out of control, Trump continued gaslighting Americans about the threat to their health during a Fourth of July speech from the South Lawn of the White House, where he minimized the dangers of Covid-19 with a baseless statement that 99% of coronavirus cases are “harmless,” a claim his Food and Drug Administration chief could not back up Sunday morning.
With many Americans flouting public health guidelines during the holiday weekend, Trump’s conduct is creating an inflection point for the GOP at a time when his poll numbers have tumbled. With American lives on the line, the question now is whether members of the Republican Party will continue to stand by in silence as the President peddles fiction about a deadly virus, and if so, will they pay a price at the ballot box in November.
… Trump’s former Homeland Security adviser Tom Bossert tweeted the ominous message Sunday: “We are in trouble…. Once a state is over 1% prevalence, it becomes much harder to extinguish the flare up,” Bossert tweeted. “It will take a huge effort to put out these outbreak fires. More than masks alone. We could top 500k US deaths this year if this trend continues.“
From: The Fullest Look Yet at the Racial Inequity of Coronavirus [emphasis by The Secular Jurist]
Early numbers had shown that Black and Latino people were being harmed by the virus at higher rates. But the new federal data — made available after The New York Times sued the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — reveals a clearer and more complete picture: Black and Latino people have been disproportionately affected by the coronavirus in a widespread manner that spans the country, throughout hundreds of counties in urban, suburban and rural areas, and across all age groups.
Latino and African-American residents of the United States have been three times as likely to become infected as their white neighbors, according to the new data, which provides detailed characteristics of 640,000 infections detected in nearly 1,000 U.S. counties. And Black and Latino people have been nearly twice as likely to die from the virus as white people, the data shows.