Home

By Robert A. Vella

Surprise, surprise!  The Democrats had a pretty good debate last night in New Hampshire (see:  AP FACT CHECK: Examining claims from the Democratic debate).  It was largely substantive, civil, and focused squarely on defeating President Trump in November.  The seven presidential candidates on stage (i.e. Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Tom Steyer, Elizabeth Warren, and Andrew Yang) finally appeared to get the message from voters that the party’s infighting over ideological and other differences had to stop.  On MSNBC’s post-debate analysis show, it was refreshing to see Lawrence O’Donnell rebut Chris Matthews’ anti-socialism rant by pointing out that popular anti-poverty programs such as Social Security and Medicare are innately socialist and that all western-style economies are a mix of capitalism and socialism.  More pointedly, establishment centrists’ fear-mongering over the “S” word is nothing but a red herring.

Winston Churchill once said that “You can always count on Americans to do the right thing after they’ve tried everything else.”  Let’s hope that’s the case with hardheaded Democrats who snatch defeat from the jaws of victory as regularly as an alcoholic falls off the wagon.

This is why I haven’t endorsed any of the candidates so far and I will not do so going forward.  Although I am an independent progressive who is ideologically aligned with the Sanders-Warren wing of the party, I only want the best candidate able to take-on Trump to win the Democratic Party nomination.  Why?  Because kicking that thoroughly corrupt mob-boss out of the White House is by far my greatest concern.  The fate of American democracy and our constitutionally-based rule of law are at stake.  If we lose this election, nothing else will matter.  When your ship is sinking, everyone aboard is in peril.

However, I will comment on Democrats’ strategy;  and, there’s a critical aspect of the 2020 election which must be addressed.  In 2016, the mood of the electorate was profoundly populist.  That’s why Sanders performed so strongly in the Democratic primaries (especially in the Midwest), and why Trump won the general election via the Electoral College (also by strong support in the Midwest).  By nominating the establishment candidate Hillary Clinton, Democrats were bucking the prevailing mood of the people… and, they understandably lost.

But, it would be an equally disastrous mistake to assume that the 2016 political dynamics will repeat this year.  The mood of the electorate is no longer populist.  The 2020 election will be a national referendum on Donald Trump even more so than the 2018 midterms were.  Political outsiders who vow to “shake-up the system” will have difficulty gaining traction because the system has already been dramatically shook-up by President Trump.  What the majority of Americans want now instead is a return to normalcy and stability.  For Democrats, it would be wise for them to nominate neither a populist upstart nor an establishment stalwart but a likeable moderate who preferably can appeal to those blue-collar voters in the Rustbelt who chose Trump over Clinton four years ago.  Two such candidates who fit that requirement are still running.

Note:  Most observers (including myself) believe Klobuchar performed very well in last night’s debate whereas Buttigieg did not.

Here’s an excerpt of my comment in yesterday’s editorial by TOKYOSANDBuilding a Blue Wave for November 2020

Suburban voters, especially women, have shifted strongly away from Republicans and towards Democrats.  This trend began shortly after Trump took office, and it has since intensified.  Last year’s elections in Kentucky, Virginia, and even in Mississippi, provide confirmation.  Additionally, voter turnout among young people has also increased.  These key demographic groups do not approve of Trump, and it’s a huge obstacle to his reelection chances.

However, Democrats could screw-up this inherent advantage.  They need to regain the white working class vote in the Rustbelt (i.e. Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania) lost to Trump in 2016.  They need to stop their idiotic and destructive quarrel between centrists and progressives.  They need to continue speaking to “kitchen table” issues (e.g. healthcare, etc.), but they also need to inform voters about the existential dangers posed by a second Trump term.

The 2020 election will be different from 2016.  Back then, the political dynamics favored Dems nominating a progressive candidate (i.e. Bernie Sanders);  instead, they chose an unpopular establishment centrist (i.e. Hillary Clinton).  Now, the political dynamics favor Dems nominating a likeable moderate candidate (perhaps Pete Buttigieg or Amy Klobuchar).  To win the presidency, the Democratic Party must prioritize the mood of the electorate over their petty factional differences on ideology and other matters.

News roundup

From:  Senate report criticizes Obama administration handling of Russia election meddling

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A bipartisan Senate report released on Thursday criticized the Obama administration for failing to react quickly or thoroughly enough to counter Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

The administration “was not well postured” to combat the meddling and was constrained in responding by a heavily politicized environment in a volatile election year and other factors that inadvertently aided Moscow, according to the Senate Intelligence Committee’s report.

The findings are significant in that minority Democrats joined majority Republicans in criticizing the Obama administration’s handling of what the panel and U.S. intelligence agencies concluded was a Russian operation to sway the presidential vote to then-Republican candidate Donald Trump over his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton.

Related stories:

DOJ reviews allegation that Erik Prince misled Congress in Russia probe

Trump Fires Impeachment Witnesses Gordon Sondland and Alexander Vindman in Post-Acquittal Purge

Duterte Moves to Cancel U.S. Military Pact, Inquirer Reports

160 Nations Ban These Weapons. The U.S. Now Embraces Them.

‘Heinous, corrupt and evil’: Feds investigate after 15 dead in Mississippi prisons

Justice Department notifies four automakers it has dropped antitrust investigation

Federal Agencies Use Cellphone Location Data for Immigration Enforcement

VA Secretary [Robert Wilkie] Looked for Dirt on a House Staffer Who Reported Sexual Assault in a VA Hospital, Complaint Says

Appeals court hands Trump win, rules Dem lawmakers cannot sue over business payments

Judge upholds Maryland ban on pet stores’ sale of cats, dogs

Brazilian judge delays ‘for now’ decision on indictment of U.S. journalist Greenwald

Romania’s outgoing premier asked to form government again

8 thoughts on “Saturday Focus: The Democrats, plus this weekend’s news roundup

  1. There is some truth, isn’t there, to the worry that if someone like Sanders is the nominee then the GOP will make the election a referendum on socialism. Forget the fact that in the West we all live in social democracies, but that’s how they’ll frame EVERY conversation. It’d be smart, too, because then they don’t have to talk about Trump. In fact, in a manner of speaking, Trump wouldn’t even be on he ticket.

    Liked by 3 people

  2. I didn’t hear Chris Matthews’ anti-socialism rant, but I wonder if he is really “anti-socialism,” or anti-PERCEPTION of socialism. In my opinion, the demonizing of socialism (by Trump and the right wing) IS a perception problem. Somehow. some way, Democrats must find a way to effectively and repeatedly counter how Trump & Company frame that perception, because he is a master at making socialism a dirty word. The swing states may hang in the balance if the Dems don’t aggressively deal with it.

    Liked by 3 people

    • I saw Matthews’ rant. He kept harping about Cuba and the Cold War falsely equating socialism with communist-style totalitarianism. Bernie Sanders’ socialist platform was effective in 2016, but the political dynamics have changed since then. Dems’ best strategy this year is to run on healthcare and against Trump, IMO.

      Liked by 4 people

  3. Pingback: Bernie and the Beasts: Analyzing the dynamics of the 2020 election maelstrom | The Secular Jurist

  4. Pingback: March 10th primary results, my analysis of the Democratic race and voter turnout, plus other news | The Secular Jurist

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s