Where’s the Trump presidency headed?

By Robert A. Vella

For several reasons which I’ve detailed on this blog since he was elected, the Trump presidency has been in hot water from the very beginning and it has only gotten hotter with time.  His goose is cooked, and the alarm buzzer is ready to sound off.  No, I don’t know what will happen in the future.  No one does.  But, I do have some understanding of the American legal system, the intricate dynamics of politics, the subtleties of rhetorical speech, and the nature of human psychology.  It forms the basis of my opinion regarding Trump, and I think it is a more accurate way to formulate such an opinion than simply relying on intuition, emotion, or gut instinct.

There’s a growing number of objective observers who share this opinion, and there’s a growing number of Republicans who also agree even if they do so reluctantly.  GOP politicians are now saying privately or in public that certain actions by Trump would force them to stop protecting his presidency from criminal prosecution or impeachment including evidentiary proof that Trump had conspired with the Russians, a clear case of obstruction of justice against the Mueller investigation, and a presidential pardon for Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort or possibly for other Trump associates convicted of felony charges.  Therefore, Trump’s ultimate fate depends on these considerations and not on the support of his loyal base which many people mistakenly believe.  If Trump’s political fortunes depended solely on his base, then he wouldn’t have lost the 2018 midterm elections nor lost them so badly.

Still not convinced?  Okay, let’s examine a few of today’s news stories.

From:  Brennan shreds Trump: ‘I am relieved that you will never have the opportunity to run for public office again’

Former CIA Director John Brennan blasted President Trump after he downplayed allegations of campaign finance violations by calling them a “private transaction.”

Responding to Trump’s Monday morning tweets, the harsh Trump critic said he is “relieved” that Trump “will never have the opportunity to run for public office again.”

“Whenever you send out such inane tweets, I take great solace in knowing that you realize how much trouble you are in & how impossible it will be for you to escape American justice,” Brennan tweeted. “Mostly, I am relieved that you will never have the opportunity to run for public office again.”

From:  Comey says there’s ‘obviously’ evidence Trump obstructed justice in 2017 talk about Flynn

WASHINGTON — Former FBI Director James Comey offered a stark assessment of President Donald Trump’s potential legal jeopardy Sunday, saying new filings from federal prosecutors point to heightened scrutiny of the president’s own conduct.

If Trump is not yet an unindicted co-conspirator to charges already filed by the special counsel and federal prosecutors against former Trump associates, “he’s certainly close,” Comey told Nicolle Wallace, host of MSNBC’s “Deadline White House” and an NBC News political analyst, during a discussion at the 92nd Street Y in New York Sunday night.

It was Comey’s first public appearance since prosecutors in New York and on special counsel Robert Mueller’s team offered the greatest insight yet into the extent of their respective probes via new sentencing memoranda for former Trump personal attorney Michael Cohen and former campaign chairman Paul Manafort.

From:  Russians interacted with at least 14 Trump associates during the campaign and transition

The Russian ambassador. A deputy prime minister. A pop star, a weightlifter, a lawyer, a Soviet army veteran with alleged intelligence ties.

Again and again and again, over the course of Donald Trump’s 18-month campaign for the presidency, Russian citizens made contact with his closest family members and friends, as well as figures on the periphery of his orbit.

Some offered to help his campaign and his real estate business. Some offered dirt on his Democratic opponent. Repeatedly, Russian nationals suggested Trump should hold a peacemaking sit-down with Vladi­mir Putin — and offered to broker such a summit.

In all, Russians interacted with at least 14 Trump associates during the campaign and presidential transition, public records and interviews show.

[…]

As Robert S. Mueller III slowly unveils the evidence that he has gathered since his appointment as special counsel in May 2017, he has not yet shown that any of the dozens of interactions between people in Trump’s orbit and Russians resulted in any specific coordination between his presidential campaign and Russia.

But the mounting number of communications that have been revealed occurred against the backdrop of “sustained efforts by the Russian government to interfere with the U.S. presidential election,” as Mueller’s prosecutors wrote in a court filing last week.

The special counsel’s filings have also revealed moments when Russia appeared to be taking cues from Trump. In July 2016, the then-candidate said at a news conference, “Russia, if you’re listening, I hope you’re able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing,” referring to messages Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton had deleted from a private account. That day, the Russians made their first effort to break into servers used by Clinton’s personal office, according to court documents.

As Americans began to grip the reality that a hostile foreign power took active steps to shape the outcome of the race, Trump and his advisers asserted they had no contact with Russia.

From:  Alleged Russian agent Maria Butina poised to plead guilty in case involving suspected Kremlin attempts to influence NRA

Maria Butina, a Russian gun rights activist, is poised to plead guilty in a case involving accusations that she was working as an agent for the Kremlin in the United States, according to a new court filing.

Attorneys for Butina and federal prosecutors jointly requested in court documents Monday that U.S. District Judge Tanya S. Chutkan set a time for Butina to withdraw her previous plea of “not guilty.” They said they could be available for her to enter her plea as early as Tuesday.

[…]

Butina was accused of working to push the Kremlin’s agenda by forming bonds with National Rifle Association officials and other conservative leaders and making outreach to 2016 presidential candidates.

[…]

Her lawyers had said her interactions with the NRA and others were typical of an ambitious student anxious to network and eager to build better relations between the United States and her country. They had at one point argued her outreach should be covered by constitutional protections for free speech and noted that she was not accused of attempting to steal U.S. secrets or working with Russian intelligence.

But prosecutors said her goal was to advance the foreign policy aims of the Kremlin and that she was acting at the direction of a Russian government official, Alexander Torshin, a former senator who now serves as deputy director of the Russian central bank.

[…]

Prosecutors have said Butina’s efforts to meet top level conservatives at NRA meetings and elsewhere were assisted by a South Dakota GOP operative identified as Paul Erickson. Erickson and Butina met during a trip of the NRA leaders to Moscow in 2013 and that the two have been involved in a romantic relationship, her lawyer said.

That’s just some of today’s news.  This story of  profound political corruption keeps building towards an inevitable crescendo.  Given the methodical intensity and thoroughness of the criminal investigations focusing on Trump and his inner circle, it is implausible to think that nothing conclusive will result from them.  We have not yet reached the point of crisis, but it will come soon enough just as it did during the Watergate scandal.  Back then, President Nixon’s last-ditch effort to save himself sealed his fate.  Sometime next year, President Trump will attempt to do the same and the outcome will also probably be the same.

∞

I welcome rebuttals to this editorial, but please try to substantiate your positions.  We all have opinions;  although, those which are well-reasoned and which cite supporting material will be given more serious attention.