WASHINGTON — Democrats hold a narrow 7-point advantage over Republicans in the final national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll before Tuesday’s midterm elections, with both parties showing record enthusiasm and interest in the upcoming contests.

Fifty percent of likely voters say they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, while 43 percent want Republicans in charge. That’s down from Democrats’ nine-point advantage in October’s NBC/WSJ poll, though the change is well within the poll’s margin of error.

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8 thoughts on “Democrats hold 7-point edge in final national NBC/WSJ poll

    • The time to worry is after the election if Republicans prevail, but I don’t see that happening. If you dig down into this poll and others, Democratic candidates are in good shape. We’ll find out for sure Tuesday night.

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    • You’re right, the public polls by themselves are insufficient indicators of elections. However, when considered with other indicators – such as private party polls (which are more sophisticated), thorough electoral analysis, and voting trends – they can be helpful.

      The public opinion polls in 2016 all made one egregious error. They assumed that Democratic voters and Independent voters who lean Democratic would vote for Hillary Clinton. In Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, a great number of them either voted for Trump or for third-party candidates; and, this was what decided that election.

      In the 2018 midterms, Trump is the incumbent running on his own record and he has no single vulnerable target like Clinton to exploit. So, the dynamics are very different this year.

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      • Speaking of Clinton, there have been rumors she may run again. Popular vote or not, I think it would be a disaster for Democrats if she did because we KNOW tRumpsky will run again (unless he by some lucky chance gets impeached before then).

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